World Cup 2026 Group D: Argentina the early favourite to top the table
The 2026 World Cup expands to 48 teams across 12 groups, and Group D is shaping up as one of the more intriguing pools. Our simulator currently has Argentina as the favourite to top the section.
Group D simulator standings
# | Team | Win group | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Argentina | 62% | 92% |
2 | Ecuador | 18% | 50% |
3 | Australia | 12% | 38% |
4 | Panama | 8% | 22% |
The story to watch
Argentina head in as the projected group winners on
62%.Ecuador are the closest challenger and look the safer bet for second place.
Australia have the talent to upset the seedings if the openers go their way.
"Twelve groups changes everything the third-place math means a single point can decide a tournament."
Note: Visit the full Group D page for live standings and probabilities, or the World Cup hub to run the AI tournament simulator.
Verdict
Group D looks settled at the top but wide open behind the favourites. With four of the best third-placed teams advancing in the new format, every match in this section matters more than ever.